Heisman Watch
Who should win it
Position blind. Every player is measured against the ordinary starter at his own job, in points added per chance, with garbage time thrown out and the quality of the opponent taken into account.
Who likely wins it
The same football, run through what the electorate has actually rewarded: quarterbacks, unbeaten teams, November, and names people have already heard. The positional discount fades for a player far enough clear of the field, which is how Ingram, Henry and DeVonta Smith happened.
How these are worked out
Both lists start from the same number: what a player is worth every time he is involved, against the last man who would start at his position somewhere in this conference set. Volume counts under a square root, so a receiver with sixty targets can stand beside a quarterback with a hundred and seventy - no receiver can match a quarterback's count, and a list that ranks on the raw total is really ranking offenses. Leading the country in a headline category is worth more when the lead is wide. The second list then adds the things voters reward and the first one ignores.
Kalshi has the market open but nothing has traded on it yet, so there are no prices to show. Being on its board still counts for something here - it is the closest thing in the data to whether the public has heard of a player - and prices appear on this page the week they appear there.